气候变化下罗布麻潜在地理分布区预测(1)
[摘要]罗布麻为夹竹桃科多年生草本植物，其叶可以入药，茎秆作为重要的纺织品原材料，预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响及其保护该资源的可持续利用具有重要意义。该文利用罗布麻的44个地理分布点和19个环境因子图层，采用MaxEnt模型分析了罗布麻在我国的潜在地理分布，并基于该模型预测政府间气候變化专门委员会(IPCC AR5)发布的BCC_CSM11气候模式下2050年及2070年的RCP26，RCP85气候情景下罗布麻的潜在地理分布范围。结果表明：最冷月低温(bio6)、年平均温(bio1)、最冷季平均降雨量(bio19)、最湿季平均温(bio8)是影响罗布麻分布的主导环境因子；在当前气候条件下，罗布麻的适宜生境占我国总面积的1194%，集中分布在新疆中部，甘肃北部，内蒙古南部，宁夏北部，陕西北部及中部，山西南部，河南北部及中部，河北中部及南部，山东，天津，辽宁南部及北京的部分区域。由模型预测可知：2050—2070年，RCP26，RCP85气候情景下，罗布麻适宜生境都有所减少。
[关键词]潜在地理分布；气候变化；MaxEnt模型；罗布麻；药用植物
, 百拇医药
[Abstract]Apocynum venetum belongs to apocynaceae and is a perennial medicinal plant， its stem is an important textile raw materials. The projection of potential geographic distribution of A. venetum has an important significance for the protection and sustainable utilization of the plant. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of A. venetum and to project how climate change would affect its geographic distribution. The projection geographic distribution of A. venetum under current bioclimatic conditions in northern China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 44 locations and 19 bioclimatic parameters. The future distributions of A. venetum were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP26 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The result showed that min air temperature of the coldest month， annual mean air temperature， precipitation of the coldest quarter and mean air temperature of the wettest quarter dominated the geographic distribution of A. venetum. Under current climate， the suitable habitats of A. venetum is 11.94% in China， the suitable habitats are mainly located in the middle of Xinjiang， in the northern part of Gansu， in the southern part of Neimeng， in the northern part of Ningxia， in the middle and northern part of Shaanxi， in the southern part of Shanxi， in the middle and northern part of Henan， in the middle and southern part of Hebei， Shandong， Tianjin， in the southern part of Liaoning and part of Beijing. From 2050 to 2070， the model outputs indicated that the suitable habitats of A. venetum would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP26 and RCP85.
, 百拇医药
[Key words]species spatial distribution； climatic change； MaxEnt model； Apocynum venetum； medicinal plant罗布麻Apocynum venetum L，又称红麻、茶叶花、红柳子等，双子叶植物纲，夹竹桃科，罗布麻属植物。高15～3 m，直立半灌木，具乳汁。枝条对生或互生，圆筒形，光滑无毛，紫红色或淡红色。属多年生草本，花期4—9月(盛开期6—7月)，果期7—12月(成熟期9—10月)。多分布于盐碱地和沙漠边缘及河流两岸、冲积平原、河泊周围及戈壁荒滩上，其叶为常用中药“罗布麻叶”，具有平肝安神、清热利尿等功效，用于治疗高血压、肾炎等疾病，其茎皮纤维细长柔韧而有光泽，具有耐腐蚀、耐磨、耐拉的优质性能，主要用于纺织、造纸、国防工业等领域，具有多方面的经济价值[1]，可以说罗布麻全身都是宝。, 百拇医药(杨会枫 郑江华 贾晓光 李晓瑾)
[关键词]潜在地理分布；气候变化；MaxEnt模型；罗布麻；药用植物
, 百拇医药
[Abstract]Apocynum venetum belongs to apocynaceae and is a perennial medicinal plant， its stem is an important textile raw materials. The projection of potential geographic distribution of A. venetum has an important significance for the protection and sustainable utilization of the plant. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of A. venetum and to project how climate change would affect its geographic distribution. The projection geographic distribution of A. venetum under current bioclimatic conditions in northern China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 44 locations and 19 bioclimatic parameters. The future distributions of A. venetum were also projected in 2050 and 2070 under the climate change scenarios of RCP26 and RCP8.5 described in 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The result showed that min air temperature of the coldest month， annual mean air temperature， precipitation of the coldest quarter and mean air temperature of the wettest quarter dominated the geographic distribution of A. venetum. Under current climate， the suitable habitats of A. venetum is 11.94% in China， the suitable habitats are mainly located in the middle of Xinjiang， in the northern part of Gansu， in the southern part of Neimeng， in the northern part of Ningxia， in the middle and northern part of Shaanxi， in the southern part of Shanxi， in the middle and northern part of Henan， in the middle and southern part of Hebei， Shandong， Tianjin， in the southern part of Liaoning and part of Beijing. From 2050 to 2070， the model outputs indicated that the suitable habitats of A. venetum would decrease under the climate change scenarios of RCP26 and RCP85.
, 百拇医药
[Key words]species spatial distribution； climatic change； MaxEnt model； Apocynum venetum； medicinal plant罗布麻Apocynum venetum L，又称红麻、茶叶花、红柳子等，双子叶植物纲，夹竹桃科，罗布麻属植物。高15～3 m，直立半灌木，具乳汁。枝条对生或互生，圆筒形，光滑无毛，紫红色或淡红色。属多年生草本，花期4—9月(盛开期6—7月)，果期7—12月(成熟期9—10月)。多分布于盐碱地和沙漠边缘及河流两岸、冲积平原、河泊周围及戈壁荒滩上，其叶为常用中药“罗布麻叶”，具有平肝安神、清热利尿等功效，用于治疗高血压、肾炎等疾病，其茎皮纤维细长柔韧而有光泽，具有耐腐蚀、耐磨、耐拉的优质性能，主要用于纺织、造纸、国防工业等领域，具有多方面的经济价值[1]，可以说罗布麻全身都是宝。, 百拇医药(杨会枫 郑江华 贾晓光 李晓瑾)